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The chart tracks the probability of victory on PredictWise since we started state-by-state predictions on February 27, 2016.

I know that an efficient market should have everything priced in immediately, but the state-by-state predictions have slipped slightly above the national predictions in the last few days. She just needs to win one of those and she is president. At this point I have been constructing the predictions independently and they have stayed very consistent. If this divergence continues I will become increasingly concerned about whether the national markets are suppressed.

If there is a good lesson for American public opinion from Brexit it this. The two set of voters: leave and remain, live in a totally different reality. The remain voters got increasingly freaked out about the British economy as a possibility turned into a reality. The leave voters, most of them, assume that it was meaningless fit of the elite bankers who were upset they did not get their way.

A small fraction of leave voter regret their vote. But, remain would most likely win a re-vote, because a huge number of non-voters feel silly for not voting remain. Brexit happened, what does that mean for the USA.

This does not affect how I predict the USA election, because (1) the USA has a long history of data versus a one-shot event (2) the USA has many outcomes to calibrate on versus just one outcome (3) we have more data for the USA election than Brexit.

But, we certainly learned that a segment of the UK voters really want immigration restrictions and trade barriers. And then there were two. While Bernie Sanders is technically still running, Donald Trump v. This lead may be surprisingly small to some people (Democrats) or surprisingly large to others (believers in fundamental models).

A lot more to follow in the next 6 months and 4 days. It has been so much fun, but there is a really good chance that the primary effectively ends in 30 minutes feeling nostalgic yet. A quick post on the state of the election at 191 until Election Day. Also, just added Newt Gingrich into the Republican VP slot should keep an eye on him. We pushed some updates to the site this morning. Musings will be brief updates on data, so I can reserve blog posts for more complete thoughts.

Our polling reflects bleeding-edge research into cost-effective, fast, flexible, and accurate polling with an emphasis on politics and finance. We infuse raw polling data with machine-learning-based post-polling analytics along with a host of other data.

The backbone of predictions on this site are market-based, generated from real-money markets that trade contracts on upcoming events. PredictWise is run by David Rothschild an innovative, and stylish economist at Microsoft Research in New York City, but should in no way be construed as representing the views or predictions of Microsoft or any of its entities. How do these match. Prior to the end of the primary strategic or upset party voters will state they will not vote for the other possible nominees.

That is helpful to their candidate. Clinton, but not vote or vote for Clinton v. Starting with the 2012 map, Clinton just needs to hold VA, OH, or FL. Pollster averages have her up by 12 pp in VA, 3 pp in OH, and 2 pp in FL. Real Clear has her up 13 pp in VA, 1.

This tends to have some predictive power, in addition to polls, at this early point. Clinton has more money in the bank and will likely out raise Trump by a lot. She will have a more unified GOTV game. And, she is extremely vetted.All complaints are taken seriously, investigated thoroughly and handled in a confidential manner. Should this not be possible we will explain why and provide a date by which the customer can expect a full response.

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