The chart tracks the probability of victory on PredictWise since we started state-by-state predictions on February 27, 2016.
I know that an efficient market should have everything priced in immediately, but the state-by-state predictions have slipped slightly above the national predictions in the last few days. She just needs to win one of those and she is president. At this point I have been constructing the predictions independently and they have stayed very consistent. If this divergence continues I will become increasingly concerned about whether the national markets are suppressed.
If there is a good lesson for American public opinion from Brexit it this. The two set of voters: leave and remain, live in a totally different reality. The remain voters got increasingly freaked out about the British economy as a possibility turned into a reality. The leave voters, most of them, assume that it was meaningless fit of the elite bankers who were upset they did not get their way.
A small fraction of leave voter regret their vote. But, remain would most likely win a re-vote, because a huge number of non-voters feel silly for not voting remain. Brexit happened, what does that mean for the USA.
This does not affect how I predict the USA election, because (1) the USA has a long history of data versus a one-shot event (2) the USA has many outcomes to calibrate on versus just one outcome (3) we have more data for the USA election than Brexit.
But, we certainly learned that a segment of the UK voters really want immigration restrictions and trade barriers. And then there were two. While Bernie Sanders is technically still running, Donald Trump v. This lead may be surprisingly small to some people (Democrats) or surprisingly large to others (believers in fundamental models).
A lot more to follow in the next 6 months and 4 days. It has been so much fun, but there is a really good chance that the primary effectively ends in 30 minutes feeling nostalgic yet. A quick post on the state of the election at 191 until Election Day. Also, just added Newt Gingrich into the Republican VP slot should keep an eye on him. We pushed some updates to the site this morning. Musings will be brief updates on data, so I can reserve blog posts for more complete thoughts.
Our polling reflects bleeding-edge research into cost-effective, fast, flexible, and accurate polling with an emphasis on politics and finance. We infuse raw polling data with machine-learning-based post-polling analytics along with a host of other data.
The backbone of predictions on this site are market-based, generated from real-money markets that trade contracts on upcoming events. PredictWise is run by David Rothschild an innovative, and stylish economist at Microsoft Research in New York City, but should in no way be construed as representing the views or predictions of Microsoft or any of its entities. How do these match. Prior to the end of the primary strategic or upset party voters will state they will not vote for the other possible nominees.
That is helpful to their candidate. Clinton, but not vote or vote for Clinton v. Starting with the 2012 map, Clinton just needs to hold VA, OH, or FL. Pollster averages have her up by 12 pp in VA, 3 pp in OH, and 2 pp in FL. Real Clear has her up 13 pp in VA, 1.
This tends to have some predictive power, in addition to polls, at this early point. Clinton has more money in the bank and will likely out raise Trump by a lot. She will have a more unified GOTV game. And, she is extremely vetted.All complaints are taken seriously, investigated thoroughly and handled in a confidential manner. Should this not be possible we will explain why and provide a date by which the customer can expect a full response.
BetBull has a requirement to submit reports of the outcome of disputes, referred to the arbitrator, to the Gambling Commission at intervals determined by the Commission either by the arbitrator or by BetBull.
ENTRY INTO FORCEThese terms and conditions are effective from 09 August 2016 00:00hr. In the case of Live Blackjack should the Player's device or connection be lost and the Player's cards are still below 16 points then another card or cards will be drawn until the points total exceeds 16 or 21. The Player will be credited with any winnings.
No more bets will be placed after the connection is lost or a player does not communicate with the croupier for 2 minutes. However should any event be terminated, Betbull shall still respect any obligations already accepted and confirmed.
BETTING RULESA bet can only be placed by a registered Player. A bet can only be placed over the Internet. A bet can only be placed by a Player if he has sufficient funds in his account with Betbull. The bet, once concluded, will be governed by the version of terms and conditions valid at the time of the bet being accepted.
A bet is deemed to have been placed as soon as confirmation of the acceptance of the betting offer from Betbull is received on the device or computer of the Player. The Player affirms that at the time he placed a bet or bets he had no knowledge as to the outcome of the respective game or that actions are being taken to affect the outcome of the games.
Where there is a suspicion of a violation of this rule, Betbull retains the right to void the bet and refuse to pay out winnings. It also retains the right to take any further action to protect its legitimate interests and to comply with other laws and regulations.
Betbull retains the right to decline to accept bets without providing any reason. The minimum and maximum bets and game rules are all available for each game offered on www.
Should Betbull decide to close a Player's account, bets which have already been placed and accepted will not be voided and the Player will be paid any winnings. A bet which has been placed and accepted cannot be amended, withdrawn or cancelled by the Player. A mistake regarding the details of a bet or bets will not influence the validity of the bet. Unless proved otherwise, these amounts are considered as final and are deemed to be accurate.
The Player is fully responsible for the bets placed on Internet. Betbull will never question the Player about the relevance of the bets they wish to place and will not be held responsible for the possible mistakes that could have been made during the placing of such bets, including mistakes regarding the placed amounts or betting option (such as colour, card, number, etc. Winnings will be paid into the Player's account after the final result is confirmed.
However, Betbull reserves the right to set aside any winnings should there be investigations into the result of a game resulting from a suspicion of criminal activities that may have affected the result of the game. If the irregularity is confirmed then Betbull retains the right to void any related bets and take any other action allowable by law.
Should Betbull become aware that a Player has placed a number of bets from different accounts he has irregularly opened, all bets will be voided. Betbull retains the right to take further action as deemed necessary.
If bets, which exceed the stated amounts, are erroneously accepted, the excess amount will be disregarded and the bet amount placed will be revised accordingly and the difference paid back to the Player.
Betting and Sporting RulesGeneral rules and arrangements regarding the placement, settlement and payouts of betsThe customer declares upon the placement of bets:That he or she is at least 18 years of age and the personal information provided in the registration process is truthful.
That he or she has been sufficiently informed as to the betting rules for all types of sports and is aware of the betting and payout limits and accepts these.King is responsible for the BrandsStarcom, Zenith, DigitasLBi, Spark Foundry, Blue 449, and Performicsbrought to life through 23,500 employees in over 100 countries. Prior to this, King was CEO of ZenithOptimedia worldwide and was one of the founding employees of the ground-breaking media agency, Zenith Media, in 1988.
Under his leadership, Xaxis became the pacesetter for the programmatic advertising industry, pioneering technology firsts and expanding via several acquisitions and investments in the burgeoning advertising technology market. At Xaxis, Brian oversaw the development of over 40 new offices, bringing programmatic advertising to major markets including Asia and Latin America.
Prior to that, he was Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Media Innovation Group, where he launched the first data management platform for agencies and was instrumental in creating the first and largest agency trading desk.
In 2016 he was named to the Crain 100, a list of the top disrupters and change-makers in business. Brian has a Bachelor of Arts degree in political science from the University of Pennsylvania and a Master of Business Administration from Columbia Business School.
In addition to directing global marketing, Alison is driving capability building in digital and strategic consumer insights, professional marketing, and the innovation pipeline. A creative visionary with over 25 years of leadership experience, she was named New York Advertising Woman of the Year in 2016. Bob Liodice is chief executive officer of the ANA. He previously served as executive vice president, responsible for member relations and business development with a primary focus on strengthening relationships with ANA member companies and broadening the membership base.
Bob joined the ANA as senior vice president in 1995. Prior to the ANA, he was vice president of global marketing and sales for Grupo Televisa, a major worldwide broadcaster. His previous experience includes more than 15 years in marketing and financial management at Kraft General Foods and tenure as category marketing manager for the Jell-O and Bakers brands.
He is a member of the boards of directors of The Advertising Council, Advertising Research Foundation, Advertising Self-Regulatory Council, Partnership for Drug-Free Kids, Advertising Educational Foundation, Digital Advertising Alliance, Trustworthy Accountability Group, and World Federation of Advertisers.
Bob holds bachelor degrees in accounting and management and an M. He held leadership roles at Razorfish, one of the early web design and digital agencies, helping them manage through the internet bubble and ultimately rising to be the global CEO. During this time, he honed his understanding and vision for the convergence of marketing and technology.
In 2013, Bob joined AOL as CEO of its flagship technology group, AOL Platforms, which is used by over 2,500 brands and agencies and which over 40,000 publishers rely on to drive convergence.
Bob holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and a BS in engineering from Syracuse University. He is an active member of the TED community and a founding member of The Nantucket Project. Bob enjoys biking, surfing, competing in triathlons and spending time with his familyAdam oversees advanced television and the digital and television convergence for DISH Media Sales. In this role, he leads Sling TV, DISH Anywhere and all advanced television advertising sales, business development and operations.
Adam is a graduate of the Roy H. He currently lives in New Jersey with his wife Melissa and their two sons. Kevin also led the B2B national sales team for CNET Networks.Whether you're planning your dream garage or just looking to improve your old one, check these tips out.
That's where we come in. Check out these tips and hints to get your house clean and keep it that way. Anyone with a strong back can stack up a bunch of blocks and build a pretty retaining wall.
But it takes skill and planning to construct an attractive wall that can also handle immense pressure, shrug off the forces of gravity, stand for decades and laugh in the face of Mother Nature.
PEX pipe is the biggest revolution in plumbing since the flush toilet, and in this article we'll answer the most common questions homeowners have about it and also give you some tips for working with it. Get timely DIY projects for your home and yard delivered right to your inbox every week. Requested Username: Please enter a valid usernameUsername cannot contain spaces or special characters Password: Please enter a password Forgot Your Password.
Remember Me Log In Join us Cancel Don't have an account yet. On World Mental Health Day, we talk to small firms who champion mental wellbeing in the workplace and encourage staff to open up-1. But employers are waking up to the importance of supporting mental wellbeing in the workplace. Read more Creating a workplace culture that supports mental wellbeing is often about what employers choose not to do, according to Riley.
A sense of shame around admitting to mental health issues means that rather than having an open and frank discussion with their employer, people invest a lot of energy in trying to hide their symptoms. During a series of events focusing on mental wellbeing that the firm ran earlier this year, Meredith says people from within the company spoke openly about their experience of mental health problems.
When setting up the business, Stewart aimed to eradicate practices that make the workplace stressful. In addition to a benefits package that includes counselling, legal and financial helplines and 24-hour access to a telephone GP service, the firm invested in efficient business systems and processes to help reduce stress. Please choose your username under which you would like all your comments to show up.
You can only set your username once. Your comments are currently being pre-moderated (why. Senior level staff are leaving and not being replaced while increased demand for services has added to stress How to manage mental health at work Overwhelmed at work. Vs Lechia Gdansk checu Gornik or Draw 1. This is implied by the phrase long shots, when youre dealing with such a limited sample size. As well as the Premier League, whether youre a neutral watching at home or joining betting tips for today free your team on the road to Wembley,bucuresti mario BTTS - No 1.
Whether youre using free bets, by combining games or taking note of our tips on why an underdog could cause a shock you can betting tips for today free get great odds for turning your free bets into serious cash. You can get in the loop with our predictions, youll see a selection of the best current deals at the bottom of our previews cyprus football league predictions from enhanced odds to deposit bonuses and free bets.
College Football Picks: Week 10 Predictions for Every Game And down the stretch they come. The shift to November means every college football team is heading into the final portion of the season, with the results this month going a long way toward setting up the College Football Playoff as well as the entire bowl.
Tagged with: college football picks ats bleacher report). Date Match Tip Odds FT??. ???. ???. ???. For small money bet on the ticket you will be in betting tips for today free place to win a lot of.
Will I get a better Job. Will I get a transfer. Best soccer prediciton by m today free matches. Remember the football spread on any given game betting tips for today free may change during the week.
If betting tips for today free you could live in any state in America, what is the best place in the United States to live. During troubled times like these,fixed matches, betting matches, leading resource for professional sports betting tips for today free betting, soccer predictions, correct score,mORNING - UNIV.Based in the UK, they have spread to many countries across the world and offer a wide variety of exciting games. See the bonus descriptions further down the page for more details and information on the terms for each bonus.
Remember that bonus offers can change from day to day, so be sure to also read the terms and conditions on the site carefully. It couldn't be easier to give your account a boost and start enjoying over 250 exciting games on offer in the Casino.
At Bet365, you can find various long-running promotions that everyone is welcome to take part in. During large events or special matches, they usually offer special promotions to their players. They also have a 0-0 promise where you get your money back on selected bets if the match ends without any goals being scored.
You can also find various deals for horse and greyhound racing. Bet365 offer mobile versions of their website for all of the main game categories (Sports bets, casino, and online games). This means that you can enjoy the thrill of online gaming without needing to download anything. If you prefer to use a mobile app, they offer apps for iPhone and Android devices.
There are different apps available for the various sub-categories of games they offer, such as poker and casino games, so your download will depend on your gaming preferences.
Not only does the app work perfectly on iPhone, it is also compatible with the iPad and iPod Touch. Instead, you need to download the app directly from the Bet365 website. You will need to enable installations from sources other than Google Play in order to install the app on your android phone.
Get the App of your choice from the App store if you have an iPhone, or download it directly from the Bet365 site on your Android device. The apps work on both mobile phones and tablets such as iPads. From their small beginnings in Stoke-on-Trent, they have grown into a huge success story and now have secondary offices in Gibraltar and Australia.
Their website is available in seventeen different languages and they offer sports betting, poker, casino, games, and bingo, as well as live streaming on popular races and events. Bet365 has one of the best websites on the market, the layout is attractive and easy to navigate. You can find all the main categories in a menu at the top, and sub-menus appear below, depending on the category you have chosen.
They have invested heavily in their live betting and live streaming services. Live Streaming on the site is free, but you must have money in your account or must have placed a bet during the last 24 hours in order to watch and take part in betting on their live streaming events.
Bet365 is one of the giants of the betting and online gaming world, which is reflected in their range of services and betting options along with a very well-developed website. We recommend Bet365 in general for all players, and especially for live betting players. Sports betting is given the pride of place, being the first option to select in the top menu on the website. The home page of the sports section shows a dashboard of live events, highlights and scores, so you have all the essential information at a glance.The trip was a 40th birthday present for me and my husband, with our children, and we all thoroughly enjoyed it - even more than we had expected to.
Hotels and guest houses an interesting mixture of styles. All good in their own way. We liked best the ones "in the middle of no-where". We were delighted to have found your company on the web and were very impressed by the quality of your service. Our hotels and meals were excellent in each instance. We found the hotel staffs to be extremely helpful and welcoming and we all thoroughly enjoyed the accommodations.
We had two day tours in and around Reykjavik prior to our self-guided itinerary and both were very informative, well organized, well guided and timely.
Our arrangements all went flawlessly. We communicated with Larus several times prior to our arrival and his timely responses were much appreciated. We thoroughly enjoyed our trip and found it very rewarding. My husband and I had a very pleasant experience with Nordic Visitor, our enquiries were responded in a prompt manner, we were able to tailor make our own itinerary according to our need, hotels were great quality and in great locations as well.
We would also like to express our gratitude to Bjarni and Helena for their assistance while we had some little issues in Norway. Bjarni was not our travel consultant but he was extremely helpful while Helena was away and managed to organise our lugguage transfer in just a few hours time while we had no idea what we could do in Oslo. Our Norway in a Nutshell trip was cancelled due to a freight train being stuck on the track and we were able to get our refund in a very timely manner.
We think the service we received from the beginning to the end of our trip was excellent, Nordic Visitor and their consultants make sure their customers get the best out of it and are being well looked after during their trip. I booked everything through Gudrun at Nordic Visitor for Iceland and it was super easy, they were really flexible with me and even when the weather and my schedule changed, it was never an issue.
Always prompt, always polite and always a good price. All the tours that were booked for us were exceptional. All the pick ups were on time and all the guides were very knowledgable. If I ever go back to Iceland, or any other Nordic country, I will certainly be using Nordic Visitor again. It was an amazing experience and I enjoyed it all.
The time went too fast. Have to come back to see it all in a different season. It was great to have the support of the amazing people of Nordic Visitor in the background especially as I was on my own. Great service, great value. Sigfus was really helpful. I would definitely recommend Nordic Visitor to friends. Thanks so much for a wonderful trip.
Excellent all the way around. Kolbrun gave me great information to prepare for my first arctic trip and I thoroughly enjoyed it. I will definitely use Nordic Visitor again for my travels. I cannot say enough great things about Nordic Visitor. My wife and I have just returned from our honeymoon in Lapland and I have to say, Irja (from www.
But, from paying attention to each and every detail of two extremely finicky customers, to going through innumerable changes in the itinerary, Irja was instrumental in ensuring that we were traveling in comfort and style.
Even though our flight details changed at the very last minute, Irja and Cecilia ensured that all accommodations and transfers were taken care of.It often happens, that if you pay for some information, you will not get a reliable one.
The produced tip will not be trustworthy, and you will end up losing your bet. Then you find yourself in a frustrating state. The good football prediction is the one that you have researched, compared teams stats and collected as much information as possible using different websites and tipsters. Then you can be sure that you have the right pick and you will experience way more fun in winning than paying someone else and blindly trust. MyBets is an independent football predicting web source, where every day you can find the latest daily football stats, game analysis and thorough information of the types of betting markets.
We offer free tips on a daily basis and our predictions are related solely to our passion to the sport. In addition to football tips, on the page you can find also extended football stats of teams and look at their performances in the last rounds. Our daily football predictions are based on: verified information, football stats, team lineups, injuries and suspensions, performances of certain teams in recent matches, mutual ratios.
MyBets is a free website whose only goal is winning for our visitors. Check out why we are different and we can guarantee you that you will earn a lot. Today's Football Predictions - current teams form (team streaks) Football tips based on teams last rounds performances and one of the most important stats. The solution is to predict probabilistically and keep careful track of your results. Probabilistic predictions naturally lend themselves to bets. I try to take advantage of this to convert vague philosophical disagreements into testable arguments on real points.
For example, in a thread about whether Donald Trump was racist, myself and some commenters were able to clarify our disagreements into a few points about what Trump would do on specific racial issues, then make bets about whether or not he would do them.
In either case, both me and the people I disagree with get some real and hard-to-avoid feedback. Every year I make many predictions about upcoming events. See 2014, 2015, and 2016.
Those are recorded separately on their own pages. This page is for scattered predictions I make in the course of blogging about other stuff. I am happy to make bets on these predictions (or my collected yearly predictions) with anyone who disagrees. In December 2016, I bet that most people would misinterpret a New York Times article about economists on school vouchers source).
The other side later backed out. It originally appeared that I won, and I received the money. I neither won nor lost. Email Address Need help with a software issue. The Greenfield Guild is glad to assist, whether you need a full team to tackle your project, or just a little advice.
The initial video consultation is always free: schedule yours today. Metaculus is a platform for generating crowd-sourced predictions about the future, especially science and technology. If you're interested in testing yourself and contributing to their project, check out their questions pageTriplebyte is building an objective and empirically validated software engineering recruitment process.
We invite you to test your skills and try our process. Giving What We Can is a charitable movement promoting giving some of your money to the developing world or other worthy causes. If you're interested in this, consider taking their Pledge as a formal and public declaration of intent. Jane Street is a quantitative trading firm with a focus on technology and collaborative problem solving.